Authors
Estee Y Cramer, Evan L Ray, Velma K Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, Tilmann Gneiting, Katie H House, Yuxin Huang, Dasuni Jayawardena, Abdul H Kanji, Ayush Khandelwal, Khoa Le, Anja Mühlemann, Jarad Niemi, Apurv Shah, Ariane Stark, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Martha W Zorn, Youyang Gu, Sansiddh Jain, Nayana Bannur, Ayush Deva, Mihir Kulkarni, Srujana Merugu, Alpan Raval, Siddhant Shingi, Avtansh Tiwari, Jerome White, Neil F Abernethy, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Spencer Fox, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, James G Scott, Mauricio Tec, Ajitesh Srivastava, Glover E George, Jeffrey C Cegan, Ian D Dettwiller, William P England, Matthew W Farthing, Robert H Hunter, Brandon Lafferty, Igor Linkov, Michael L Mayo, Matthew D Parno, Michael A Rowland, Benjamin D Trump, Yanli Zhang-James, Samuel Chen, Stephen V Faraone, Jonathan Hess, Christopher P Morley, Asif Salekin, Dongliang Wang, Sabrina M Corsetti, Thomas M Baer, Marisa C Eisenberg, Karl Falb, Yitao Huang, Emily T Martin, Ella McCauley, Robert L Myers, Tom Schwarz, Daniel Sheldon, Graham Casey Gibson, Rose Yu, Liyao Gao, Yian Ma, Dongxia Wu, Xifeng Yan, Xiaoyong Jin, Yu-Xiang Wang, YangQuan Chen, Lihong Guo, Yanting Zhao, Quanquan Gu, Jinghui Chen, Lingxiao Wang, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Difan Zou, Hannah Biegel, Joceline Lega, Steve McConnell, VP Nagraj, Stephanie L Guertin, Christopher Hulme-Lowe, Stephen D Turner, Yunfeng Shi, Xuegang Ban, Robert Walraven, Qi-Jun Hong, Stanley Kong, Axel van de Walle, James A Turtle, Michal Ben-Nun, Steven Riley, Pete Riley, Ugur Koyluoglu, David DesRoches, Pedro Forli, Bruce Hamory, Christina Kyriakides, Helen Leis, John Milliken, Michael Moloney, James Morgan, Ninad Nirgudkar, Gokce Ozcan, Noah Piwonka, Matt Ravi, Chris Schrader, Elizabeth Shakhnovich, Daniel Siegel, Ryan Spatz, Chris Stiefeling, Barrie Wilkinson, Alexander Wong, Sean Cavany, Guido España, Sean Moore, Rachel Oidtman, Alex Perkins, David Kraus, Andrea Kraus, Zhifeng Gao, Jiang Bian, Wei Cao, Juan Lavista Ferres, Chaozhuo Li, Tie-Yan Liu, Xing Xie, Shun Zhang, Shun Zheng, Alessandro Vespignani, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Xinyue Xiong, Andrew Zheng, Jackie Baek, Vivek Farias, Andreea Georgescu
Publication date
2021/2/5
Journal
Medrxiv
Pages
2021.02. 03.21250974
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Description
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in …
Scholar articles
EY Cramer, EL Ray, VK Lopez, J Bracher, A Brennen… - Medrxiv, 2021
Y Cramer Estee, K Lopez Velma, GGE Niemi Jarad… - medRxiv, 2021