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1Environmental Simulations International Ltd, Priory House, Priory Road, Shrewsbury SY1 1RU, UK 2Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK 3Environment Agency, Science Group, Olton Court, 10 Warwick Road, Olton, Solihull B92 7HX, UK 4Present address: Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK (e-mail: jonathan. smith@ environment-agency. gov. uk)