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Although the terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 25 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, the rate of land carbon uptake remains highly uncertain, leading to uncertainties in climate projections^,. Understanding the factors that limit or drive land carbon storage is therefore important for improving climate predictions. One potential limiting factor for land carbon uptake is soil moisture, which can reduce gross primary production through ecosystem water stress^,, cause vegetation mortality and further exacerbate climate extremes due to land–atmosphere feedbacks. Previous work has explored the impact of soil-moisture availability on past carbon-flux variability^,,. However, the influence of soil-moisture variability and trends on the long-term carbon sink and the mechanisms responsible for associated carbon losses remain uncertain. Here we use the data output from four Earth system models from a …