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This study aims to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud water system located in central Iran. A probabilistic multimodel ensemble scenario is used to characterize uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). The Zayandeh-Rud watershed management and sustainability model (ZRW-MSM) is run under an ensemble scenario with different uncertainty levels to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud water system and to identify effective adaptation strategies to minimize these effects. ZRW-MSM is a system dynamics model that captures the interrelations between the basin's hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. This model can provide insights about the behavior trends of the basin's sub-systems under climate change impacts. If current water management policies hold into the future, Gav-Khouni Marsh, an …