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Changes in the global water cycle critically impact environmental, agricultural, and energy systems relied upon by humanity (Jiménez Cisneros et al 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)). Understanding recent water cycle change is essential in constraining future projections. Warming-induced water cycle change is expected to amplify the pattern of sea surface salinity (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8). A puzzle has, however, emerged. The surface salinity pattern has amplified by 5%–8% since the 1950s (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8, Skliris et al 2014 Clim. Dyn. 43 709–36) while the water cycle is thought to have amplified at close to half that rate (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8, Skliris et al 2016 Sci. Rep. 6 752). This discrepancy is also replicated in climate projections of the 21st century (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 …