Authors
Jianxiao Wang, Liudong Chen, Zhenfei Tan, Ershun Du, Nian Liu, Jing Ma, Mingyang Sun, Canbing Li, Jie Song, Xi Lu, Chin-Woo Tan, Guannan He
Publication date
2023/9/4
Journal
Nature Communications
Volume
14
Issue
1
Pages
5379
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Description
Solar and wind resources are vital for the sustainable energy transition. Although renewable potentials have been widely assessed in existing literature, few studies have examined the statistical characteristics of the inherent renewable uncertainties arising from natural randomness, which is inevitable in stochastic-aware research and applications. Here we develop a rule-of-thumb statistical learning model for wind and solar power prediction and generate a year-long dataset of hourly prediction errors of 30 provinces in China. We reveal diversified spatiotemporal distribution patterns of prediction errors, indicating that over 60% of wind prediction errors and 50% of solar prediction errors arise from scenarios with high utilization rates. The first-order difference and peak ratio of generation series are two primary indicators explaining the uncertainty distribution. Additionally, we analyze the seasonal distributions of the …
Total citations
Scholar articles
J Wang, L Chen, Z Tan, E Du, N Liu, J Ma, M Sun, C Li… - Nature Communications, 2023