Authors
Keri N Althoff, Cameron N Stewart, Elizabeth Humes, Jinbing Zhang, Lucas Gerace, Cynthia M Boyd, Cherise Wong, Amy C Justice, Kelly A Gebo, Jennifer E Thorne, Anna A Rubtsova, Michael A Horberg, Michael J Silverberg, Sean X Leng, Peter F Rebeiro, Richard D Moore, Kate Buchacz, Parastu Kasaie
Publication date
2022/3/1
Journal
AIDS
Volume
36
Issue
3
Pages
459-471
Publisher
LWW
Description
Objective:
To project the future age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States, under expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival (baseline scenario) and achieving the ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75% reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020 to 2025 and sustaining levels to 2030 (EHE75% scenario).
Design:
An agent-based simulation model with mathematical functions estimated from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design data and parameters from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's annual HIV surveillance reports.
Methods:
The PEARL (ProjEcting Age, MultimoRbidity, and PoLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model simulated individuals in 15 subgroups of sex-and-HIV acquisition risk and race/ethnicity. Simulation outcomes from the baseline scenario are compared with outcomes from the EHE75% scenario …
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Scholar articles
KN Althoff, CN Stewart, E Humes, J Zhang, L Gerace… - AIDS, 2022