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Basic concepts in probability are employed to develop analytic formulae for both the expectation (bias) and variance for image motions obtained during subset‐based pattern matching. Specifically, the expectation and variance in image motions in the presence of uncorrelated Gaussian intensity noise for each pixel location are obtained by optimising a least squares intensity matching metric. Results for both 1D and 2D image analyses clearly quantify both the bias and the covariance matrix for image motion estimates as a function of: (a) interpolation method, (b) sub‐pixel motion, (c) intensity noise, (d) contrast, (e) level of uniaxial normal strain and (f) subset size. For 1D translations, excellent agreement is demonstrated between simulations, theoretical predictions and experimental measurements. The level of agreement confirms that the analytical formulae can be used to provide a priori estimates for the ‘quality …