Authors
Antonio Sanfilippo, Luis Martin-Pomares, Nassma Mohandes, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia Bachour
Publication date
2016/2/1
Journal
Solar Energy
Volume
125
Pages
77-85
Publisher
Pergamon
Description
The ability to forecast solar irradiance in near-real time (nowcasting) is crucial in managing the integration of solar energy in power grids. This paper focuses on minute-by-minute forecasts of the normalized clearness index, a measure of global horizontal irradiation, within a fifteen steps-ahead temporal horizon, using data collected with a radiometric station in Doha, Qatar, for the period January–December 2014. We describe a novel multi-modeling approach to solar forecasting that uses supervised classification of forecasting evaluation results from diverse stochastic models to select the best predictions, according to their expected superiority in terms of lower error rate. The hypothesis that such a multi-modeling approach rivals the performance of any single forecasting model is tested with reference to two autoregressive models, of order 3 and 11 respectively, a support vector regression model, and a persistence …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
A Sanfilippo, L Martin-Pomares, N Mohandes… - Solar Energy, 2016