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Technology introduction and the intensive use of resources, particularly in smallholder farming systems, are at the core of debates about future food security and sustainable livelihoods. In Brazil, land use changes promoted by competing agricultural chains require a search for alternative modes of production for family farms. We analyse the technical and economic viability of intensification of dairy farming by smallholders in the “Balde Cheio” (Full Bucket) programme. On average, family farmers who joined the programme increased milk production three-fold whereas at regional level there was a significant reduction of 8% between 2003 and 2009. Comprehensive datasets from São Paulo state and four other regions across Brazil were collated and analysed to explore for whom, how and when intensive dairy production is a feasible option. Data envelopment analysis allowed us to compare inefficiencies among …