Authors
Karttikeya Mangalam, Yang An, Harshayu Girase, Jitendra Malik
Publication date
2021
Conference
IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision
Description
Human trajectory forecasting is an inherently multimodal problem. Uncertainty in future trajectories stems from two sources:(a) sources that are known to the agent but unknown to the model, such as long term goals and (b) sources that are unknown to both the agent & the model, such as intent of other agents & irreducible randomness in decisions. We propose to factorize this uncertainty into its epistemic & aleatoric sources. We model the epistemic uncertainty through multimodality in long term goals and the aleatoric uncertainty through multimodality in waypoints & paths. To exemplify this dichotomy, we also propose a novel long term trajectory forecasting setting, with prediction horizons upto a minute, upto an order of magnitude longer than prior works. Finally, we present Y-net, a scene compliant trajectory forecasting network that exploits the proposed epistemic & aleatoric structure for diverse trajectory predictions across long prediction horizons. Y-net significantly improves previous state-of-the-art performance on both (a) The short prediction horizon setting on the Stanford Drone (31.7% in FDE) & ETH/UCY datasets (7.4% in FDE) and (b) The proposed long horizon setting on the re-purposed Stanford Drone & Intersection Drone datasets. Code is available at: https://karttikeya. github. io/publication/ynet/
Total citations
202020212022202320241145610167
Scholar articles
K Mangalam, Y An, H Girase, J Malik - Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF International Conference …, 2021