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High‐frequency (subhourly) changes in soil respiration (Rs), a critical component of the carbon cycle, are not well documented in semiarid ecosystems. We investigate the response of Rs to subhourly soil temperature (Tsoil) and soil volumetric water content (VWC) variation in a semiarid ecosystem across a year of highly variable weather. We propose a probabilistic model to estimate the likelihood of Rs exceeding its annual mean (1.2 μmol CO₂/m²s), conditioned on different Tsoil and VWC values. The results show that Rs follows a Gaussian‐like pattern as Tsoil increases, where it follows an upward trend until ~18 °C, and then begins to decline. Rs remains constant at Tsoil beyond ~27 °C. Using our novel conditional probability model, we show both the increasing and decreasing response of Rs to rising Tsoil through two ranges (14–17 and 20–23 °C) where Rs observations show opposing responses. We …