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The Teesta basin, shared by Bangladesh and India, undergoes profound changes due to land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics combined with climate change, significantly impacting its water balance. This comprehensive study aims to analyze the combined effects of future LULC changes and climate change on basin runoff. Employing a cellular-automata model, we accurately predicted LULC for 2020 and projected scenarios for 2050 and 2080. We utilized the semi-distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model for the base period (1995–2014) and two future periods: 2050s (2035–2064) and 2080s (2071–2100). SWAT model is forced by 8 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP245 and SSP585. The study reveals notable LULC changes, with substantial increases in agricultural (0.49%) and settlement areas (1.67%) from 2000 to 2010 …