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Even the optimists among biotechnology proponents have been caught off guard by its extremely fast adoption rates at the farm level. In 1999, just four years from commercial introduction, almost 50% of the total US corn, soybean and cotton acreage will be planted with transgenics. To put this level of adoption in perspective, consider for example the adoption curve of Roundup Ready soybeans against that of the most dominant agricultural technology of the past: hybrid corn. To make the comparison more pronounced, I have used the average adoption curve of hybrid corn for only Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, which exhibited some of the highest adoption rates among different states. The comparison is revealing. In 1999, an estimated 55% of soybean acres will be planted with Roundup Ready soybeans (figure 1). It took seven years for the selected states to reach similar adoption levels in the case of hybrid corn. In some states it took twenty years or more. Bt-corn, Roundup Ready cotton and Bt-cotton also exhibit adoption rates significantly faster than hybrid corn (figure 2).

Economists tend to believe that people are rational, responding to incentives and potential opportunities. So, looking at these adoption rates, one should assume that opportunities must abound. This assumption is consistent with the slim empirical evidence available at this time. University trials and impact studies across different agrobiotechnologies lead to the following two conclusions: