Authors
Elisa Manzini, A Yu Karpechko, J Anstey, MP Baldwin, RX Black, C Cagnazzo, N Calvo, Andrew Charlton‐Perez, B Christiansen, Paolo Davini, E Gerber, M Giorgetta, L Gray, SC Hardiman, Y‐Y Lee, DR Marsh, Brent A McDaniel, A Purich, AA Scaife, D Shindell, S‐W Son, S Watanabe, Giuseppe Zappa
Publication date
2014/7/16
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume
119
Issue
13
Pages
7979-7998
Description
Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere‐stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a …
Scholar articles
E Manzini, AY Karpechko, J Anstey, MP Baldwin… - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2014