Authors
Tessaleno Devezas, George Modelski
Publication date
2003/11/1
Journal
Technological forecasting and social change
Volume
70
Issue
9
Pages
819-859
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
Is social change on the scale of the human species a millennial learning process? The authors answer in the affirmative, demonstrating that world system evolution, viewed as a cascade of multilevel, nested, and self-similar, Darwinian-like processes ranging in “size” from one to over 250 generations, exhibits power law behavior, which is also known as self-organized criticality. World social organization, poised as it is on the boundary between order and chaos, is neither subcritical nor supercritical, and that allows for flexibility, which is a necessary condition of evolution and learning, and these in turn account for the major transitions marking world history and serving as the general framework for long-range forecasting. A literature review confirms the close affinity between evolution and learning, mathematical analysis reveals the crucial role of the learning rate as pacemaker of evolutionary change, and empirical …
Total citations
20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202318252387851346583112252
Scholar articles