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The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) emphasises that cost‐effectiveness is not the only consideration in health technology appraisal and is increasingly explicit about other factors considered relevant but not the weight attached to each.

The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of cost‐effectiveness and other factors on NICE decisions and whether NICE's decision‐making has changed over time.

We model NICE's decisions as binary choices for or against a health care technology in a specific patient group. Independent variables comprised of the following: clinical and economic evidence; characteristics of patients, disease or treatment; and contextual factors potentially affecting decision‐making. Data on all NICE decisions published by December 2011 were obtained from HTAinSite [www.htainsite.com].

Cost‐effectiveness alone correctly predicted 82% of decisions; few …