Authors
Yu Zhan, Yuzhou Luo, Xunfei Deng, Huajin Chen, Michael L Grieneisen, Xueyou Shen, Lizhong Zhu, Minghua Zhang
Publication date
2017/4/1
Journal
Atmospheric environment
Volume
155
Pages
129-139
Publisher
Pergamon
Description
A high degree of uncertainty associated with the emission inventory for China tends to degrade the performance of chemical transport models in predicting PM2.5 concentrations especially on a daily basis. In this study a novel machine learning algorithm, Geographically-Weighted Gradient Boosting Machine (GW-GBM), was developed by improving GBM through building spatial smoothing kernels to weigh the loss function. This modification addressed the spatial nonstationarity of the relationships between PM2.5 concentrations and predictor variables such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological conditions. GW-GBM also overcame the estimation bias of PM2.5 concentrations due to missing AOD retrievals, and thus potentially improved subsequent exposure analyses. GW-GBM showed good performance in predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 23.0 μg/m3) even with partially …
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