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African elephants are ecosystem engineers. As such, their long‐term patterns of distribution and abundance (i.e., space‐use intensity) will influence ecosystem structure and function. We elucidate these patterns for bull versus herd groups, by analysing the spatiotemporal dynamics of an increasing elephant population in relation to key ecological drivers: rainfall, distance to major rivers and time since last fire. Significant changes to the long‐term patterns of elephant density and group‐type probabilities are identified and explained.

Kruger National Park, South Africa.

Using almost three decades of census records (1985–2012), we applied Multiple Point Process Models to assess the influence of rainfall, rivers and fire in shaping elephant space‐use. Significant changes to the long‐term patterns of elephant density and group type were also identified using kernel density estimates and the …