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Lava flows are recurring and widespread hazards that affect areas around active volcanoes, having the potential to cause significant social and economic loss. In the last decades, physics-based models of lava flows have been proven effective and powerful tools to forecast and assess the hazard posed by effusive events. These models require different input parameters, such as the physical properties of the fluid (eg, melt compositions, water content, rheological law, thermal properties) and the topography of the terrain. A critical parameter in physical-mathematical modelling is the effusion rate, ie the rate at which lava is discharged. Lava effusion rate is variable in time, strongly controlling the emplacement and run-out distance of lava flows. Nevertheless, both for assessing long-term hazards and for monitoring efforts during on-going eruptions, effusion rate is assumed to be constant or to have a bell-shaped time …