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Climate change, increased climate variability and poor soil fertility are major bio-physical constraints to cropping on smallholder farms in southern Africa. We used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to assess maize yield response to integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) rotational sequences of low-quality organic resources, nitrogen-fixing green manure and grain legumes, and mineral fertilizers under baseline (1960–2005) and projected (2040–2069) climates. APSIM was also employed to evaluate the response of maize yield to the ISFM sequences under a combination of a changing climate, and typical sowing dates and mineral fertilizer application rates for smallholder households of varying resource endowment. The ISFM sequences were ‘Fertilizer-start’ [a sunnhemp (Crotalaria juncea (L.)-based sequence], ‘Litter-start’ (a woodland litter-based sequence), and ‘Soya-start’ and ‘Manure …