Authors
Felipe Hurtado-Ferro, Cody S Szuwalski, Juan L Valero, Sean C Anderson, Curry J Cunningham, Kelli F Johnson, Roberto Licandeo, Carey R McGilliard, Cole C Monnahan, Melissa L Muradian, Kotaro Ono, Katyana A Vert-Pre, Athol R Whitten, André E Punt
Publication date
2015/1
Journal
ICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume
72
Issue
1
Pages
99-110
Publisher
ICES/CIEM
Description
Retrospective patterns are systematic changes in estimates of population size, or other assessment model-derived quantities, that occur as additional years of data are added to, or removed from, a stock assessment. These patterns are an insidious problem, and can lead to severe errors when providing management advice. Here, we use a simulation framework to show that temporal changes in selectivity, natural mortality, and growth can induce retrospective patterns in integrated, age-structured models. We explore the potential effects on retrospective patterns of catch history patterns, as well as model misspecification due to not accounting for time-varying biological parameters and selectivity. We show that non-zero values for Mohn’s ρ (a common measure for retrospective patterns) can be …
Total citations
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