Authors
James J Gilroy, Thomas Virzi, Rebecca L Boulton, Julie L Lockwood
Publication date
2012/7
Journal
Ecology
Volume
93
Issue
7
Pages
1509-1516
Publisher
Ecological Society of America
Description
Survival estimates generated from live capture–mark–recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term “apparent survival.” Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias‐adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model …
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