Authors
Gabriel Chiodo, Ricardo García-Herrera, N Calvo, José Manuel Vaquero, Juan A Añel, David Barriopedro, Katja Matthes
Publication date
2016/3/7
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
11
Issue
3
Pages
034015
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Description
Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the'grand'minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m− 2), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
G Chiodo, R García-Herrera, N Calvo, JM Vaquero… - Environmental Research Letters, 2016