Authors
Jawad Nagi, Keem Siah Yap, Farrukh Nagi, Sieh Kiong Tiong, Syed Khaleel Ahmed
Publication date
2011/12/1
Journal
Applied Soft Computing
Volume
11
Issue
8
Pages
4773-4788
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and planning. In recent years, due to privatization and deregulation of the power industry, accurate electricity forecasting has become an important research area for efficient electricity production. This paper presents a time series approach for mid-term load forecasting (MTLF) in order to predict the daily peak load for the next month. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the self-organizing map (SOM) and support vector machine (SVM). According to the similarity degree of the time series load data, SOM is used as a clustering tool to cluster the training data into two subsets, using the Kohonen rule. As a novel machine learning technique, the support vector regression (SVR) is used to fit the testing data based on the clustered subsets, for predicting the daily peak load. Our …
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