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Several studies estimate the immediate impact of climate change on agricultural societies in terms of changes in crop yields or farm income, though few studies concentrate on the immediate secondary consequences of climate change. This synthetic analysis uses a set of indicators to assess the repercussions of predicted income reductions resulting from climate change on food consumption, nutrition, health expenditure, education, and recreation in Zimbabwe, Cameroon, South Africa and Ethiopia. We also assess the potential decline in human development potential among smallholder dryland farmers in these sub-Saharan African countries. In contrast to previous efforts, the current study directly integrates the uncertainties in estimations of income changes and secondary consequences through a weighting scheme. The results reveal moderate to high levels of secondary impacts which could lead to increased …