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This paper offers a more nuanced analysis of employee promotion decisions; specifically, how they are affected by firm size, gender and stages within the business cycle. Drawing on data from Portugal, we find that during times of adverse macroeconomic conditions, promotion prospects in all firms decline. Within large firms, women are more likely to be promoted during economic downturns, reflecting the ‘glass cliff’ hypothesis. In small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), overall promotion rates are less affected by adverse economic conditions, however, women are less likely to attain promotions. Our results emphasize the importance of market volatility and firm heterogeneity in promotion and importantly, reveal differing forms of gender discrimination. In large firms women are, in effect, afforded greater responsibility for the effects of market volatility whilst SMEs invest more confidence in male employees to …