Authors
Xiaowei Chen, Jing Li, Chen Xiao, Peilin Yang
Publication date
2021/6
Journal
Fuzzy optimization and decision making
Volume
20
Issue
2
Pages
189-208
Publisher
Springer US
Description
Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations has been an exceedingly difficult task. This paper presents an -path-based approach that can handle the proposed high-dimensional uncertain SIR model. We apply the -path-based approach to calculating the uncertainty distributions and related expected values of the solutions. Furthermore, we employ the method of moments to estimate parameters and design a numerical algorithm to solve them. This model is applied to describing the development trend of COVID-19 using infected and recovered data of Hubei province. The results indicate that lockdown policy achieves almost 100% efficiency after February 13, 2020, which is consistent with the existing literatures. The high-dimensional -path-based approach opens up new possibilities in solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations and new applications.
Total citations
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