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Purpose

To determine baseline individual and school-related factors associated with increased risk of developing depression symptoms by year four (Y4) of medical school, and to develop a prognostic index that stratifies risk of developing depression symptoms (Depression-PI) among medical students.

Method

The authors analyzed data from 3,743 students (79% of 4,732) attending 49 US medical schools who completed baseline (2010) and Y4 (2014) surveys. Surveys included validated scales measuring depression, stress, coping, and social support. The authors collected demographics and school characteristics and conducted multivariate analysis to identify baseline factors independently associated with Y4 depression symptoms. They used these factors to create a prognostic index for developing depression. They randomly divided the data into discovery (n= 2,455) and replication (n= 1,288) datasets and …