Authors
Wändi Bruine De Bruin, Wilbert Van der Klaauw, Giorgio Topa, Julie S Downs, Baruch Fischhoff, Olivier Armantier
Publication date
2012/8/1
Journal
Journal of Economic Psychology
Volume
33
Issue
4
Pages
749-757
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
Economists and policy makers increasingly consult national household surveys asking individuals about their economic circumstances, financial decisions, and expectations for the future. For decades, the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers and other national surveys have asked about expectations for “prices in general”, with responses being used by academic economists, policy makers, and central bankers. Although median responses track official inflation estimates, respondents exhibit considerable disagreement, with some reporting seemingly large overestimations. Here, we demonstrate that changes in the wording of survey questions about inflation expectations affect the central tendency of responses as well as their dispersion. We randomly assigned respondents to questions asking about “prices in general”, “inflation”, or “prices you pay”. Respondents’ expectations and perceptions were lower and …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
WB De Bruin, W Van der Klaauw, G Topa, JS Downs… - Journal of Economic Psychology, 2012