Authors
Brendan A Wintle, Sarah A Bekessy, David A Keith, Brian W Van Wilgen, Mar Cabeza, Boris Schröder, Silvia B Carvalho, Alessandra Falcucci, Luigi Maiorano, Tracey J Regan, Carlo Rondinini, Luigi Boitani, Hugh P Possingham
Publication date
2011/10
Journal
Nature Climate Change
Volume
1
Issue
7
Pages
355-359
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Description
Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems. Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change,,,. Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints. Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world’s most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal …
Total citations
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