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It has been assumed that mediators of civil strife are more likely to experience success if they are both separate and neutral (that is, “outsider‐impartial”) with respect to the conflict at hand. Recently, though, theorists have posed an “insider‐partial” model of the trusted regionally accepted mediator as being more effective. This article tests these contrasting assumptions. According to Roy Licklider, there have been only fourteen cases of successfully negotiated settlement of a civil war since 1945. We therefore derive a sample of seven successful cases and contrast them with seven that were not successfully negotiated, for the 1960‐1994 period. We look for mediator and conflict characteristics predicting successor failure, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses. Results indicate that the relationship is a complex one including various interactive effects where the type of mediator can make a …