Authors
Emanuel Moench
Publication date
2008/9/1
Journal
Journal of Econometrics
Volume
146
Issue
1
Pages
26-43
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
This paper suggests a term structure model which parsimoniously exploits a broad macroeconomic information set. The model uses the short rate and the common components of a large number of macroeconomic variables as factors. Precisely, the dynamics of the short rate are modeled with a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression and the term structure is derived using parameter restrictions implied by no-arbitrage. The model has economic appeal and provides better out-of-sample yield forecasts at intermediate and long horizons than a number of previously suggested approaches. The forecast improvement is highly significant and particularly pronounced for short and medium-term maturities.
Total citations
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