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This report presents the integrated case study for Nepal carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tier framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Nepal are assessed, and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios in Nepal are analyzed to examine the proportion of donor activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for Nepal’s water resources sector which was identified as most vulnerable to climate change. This part of the analysis also involved stakeholder consultation through an in-country workshop to identify key synergies and conflicts between climate change concerns and sectoral projects and plans.

Analysis of recent climatic trends reveals a significant warming trend in recent decades which has been even more pronounced at higher altitudes. Climate change scenarios for Nepal across multiple general circulation models meanwhile show considerable convergence on continued warming, with country averaged mean temperature increases of 1.2 C and 3 C projected by 2050 and 2100. Warming trends have already had significant impacts in the Nepal Himalayas–most significantly in terms of glacier retreat and significant increases in the size and volume of glacial lakes, making them more prone to Glacial Lake Outburst …