Authors
Richard G Pearson, Wilfried Thuiller, Miguel B Araújo, Enrique Martinez‐Meyer, Lluís Brotons, Colin McClean, Lera Miles, Pedro Segurado, Terence P Dawson, David C Lees
Publication date
2006/10/1
Journal
Journal of Biogeography
Volume
33
Issue
10
Pages
1704-1711
Publisher
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Description
Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche‐based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy‐guiding applications.
Location The Western Cape of South Africa.
Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current and predicted future climate for four species (including two subspecies) of Proteaceae. Each model was built using an identical set of five input variables and distribution data for 3996 sampled sites. We compare model predictions by testing agreement between observed and simulated distributions for the present day …
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Scholar articles
RG Pearson, W Thuiller, MB Araújo, E Martinez‐Meyer… - Journal of biogeography, 2006