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Species assembly and niche differentiation were studied, and future species composition was predicted by simple Markov models, in an old-growth deciduous forest at the Ogawa Forest Reserve in central Japan. The dominant species in our 6ha study site are Quercus serrata, Fagus japonica, and F. crenata.

An ordination by population parameters revealed four different combination 3 of life forms and regeneration niches. Cluster analysis based on interspecific spatial correlation revealed three groups of species. The species in cluster A, such as F. japonica, occurred at the bottom of the valley, while those in cluster B, such as Q. serrata, occurred along ridges. Species in cluster C, such as F. crenata, did not show any particular habitat preference. Clusters B and C were further divided into three smaller clusters (a-c). Both clusters Ba and Bb included shade intolerant species. Species in cluster Ba …