Authors
Jonathan J Corcoran, Ian D Wilson, J Andrew Ware
Publication date
2003/10/1
Journal
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume
19
Issue
4
Pages
623-634
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).
Total citations
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Scholar articles
JJ Corcoran, ID Wilson, JA Ware - International Journal of Forecasting, 2003