View article

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to address numerous questions in ecology, biogeography, conservation biology and evolution. Surprisingly, the crucial step of selecting the most relevant variables has received little attention, despite its direct implications for model transferability and uncertainty. Here, we aim to address this with a continent‐wide, evaluation of which climate predictors provided the most accurate SDMs for bird distributions.

Conterminous United States.

For 243 species, we used yearly data since 1971 (from the North American Breeding Bird Survey) to run SDMs (six different algorithms) with combinations of six relatively uncorrelated climate predictors (selected from 22 widely used climate variables). We then estimated the importance of each predictor – both spatially and over a 40‐year time period – by comparing the accuracy of the model …