Authors
Sean C Anderson, Andrew B Cooper, Olaf P Jensen, Cóilín Minto, James T Thorson, Jessica C Walsh, Jamie Afflerbach, Mark Dickey‐Collas, Kristin M Kleisner, Catherine Longo, Giacomo Chato Osio, Daniel Ovando, Iago Mosqueira, Andrew A Rosenberg, Elizabeth R Selig
Publication date
2017/7
Journal
Fish and Fisheries
Volume
18
Issue
4
Pages
732-741
Description
Fishery managers must often reconcile conflicting estimates of population status and trend. Superensemble models, commonly used in climate and weather forecasting, may provide an effective solution. This approach uses predictions from multiple models as covariates in an additional “superensemble” model fitted to known data. We evaluated the potential for ensemble averages and superensemble models (ensemble methods) to improve estimates of population status and trend for fisheries. We fit four widely applicable data‐limited models that estimate stock biomass relative to equilibrium biomass at maximum sustainable yield (B/BMSY). We combined these estimates of recent fishery status and trends in B/BMSY with four ensemble methods: an ensemble average and three superensembles (a linear model, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensembles on 5,760 simulated …
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