Authors
Margaux Zaffran, Olivier Féron, Yannig Goude, Julie Josse, Aymeric Dieuleveut
Publication date
2022/6/28
Conference
International Conference on Machine Learning
Pages
25834-25866
Publisher
PMLR
Description
Uncertainty quantification of predictive models is crucial in decision-making problems. Conformal prediction is a general and theoretically sound answer. However, it requires exchangeable data, excluding time series. While recent works tackled this issue, we argue that Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI, Gibbs & Cand {è} s, 2021), developed for distribution-shift time series, is a good procedure for time series with general dependency. We theoretically analyse the impact of the learning rate on its efficiency in the exchangeable and auto-regressive case. We propose a parameter-free method, AgACI, that adaptively builds upon ACI based on online expert aggregation. We lead extensive fair simulations against competing methods that advocate for ACI’s use in time series. We conduct a real case study: electricity price forecasting. The proposed aggregation algorithm provides efficient prediction intervals for day-ahead forecasting. All the code and data to reproduce the experiments are made available on GitHub.
Total citations
2021202220232024283263
Scholar articles
M Zaffran, O Féron, Y Goude, J Josse, A Dieuleveut - International Conference on Machine Learning, 2022