Authors
Gavin D Madakumbura, Hyungjun Kim, Nobuyuki Utsumi, Hideo Shiogama, Erich M Fischer, Øyvind Seland, John F Scinocca, Daniel M Mitchell, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Taikan Oki
Publication date
2019/3/5
Journal
Scientific Reports
Volume
9
Issue
1
Pages
3483
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Description
The Paris agreement was adopted to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate the event-to-event hydroclimatic intensity, where an event is a pair of adjacent wet and dry spells, under future warming scenarios. According to a set of targeted multi-model large ensemble experiments, event-wise intensification will significantly increase globally for an additional 0.5 °C warming beyond 1.5 °C. In high latitudinal regions of the North American continent and Eurasia, this intensification is likely to involve overwhelming increases in wet spell intensity. Western and Eastern North America will likely experience more intense wet spells with negligible changes of dry spells. For the Mediterranean region, enhancement of dry spells seems to be dominating compared to the decrease in wet spell strength, and this will lead to an overall event-wise …
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