Authors
Daniel F Cotterill, Dann Mitchell, Peter A Stott, Paul Bates
Publication date
2024/3/29
Journal
International Journal of Climatology
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Description
Three out of the five highest daily winter rainfall totals on record over Northern England have occurred from 2015 onwards. Heavy rainfall events in the winters of 2013–2014, 2015–2016 and 2019–2020 led to more than 2.8‐billion‐pounds of insurance losses from flooding in the UK. Has the frequency of these events been influenced by human‐induced climate change? Winter rainfall in the UK is extremely variable year‐to‐year, which makes the attribution of rainfall extremes particularly challenging. To tackle this problem, we introduce an UNprecedented Simulated Extreme Ensemble (UNSEEN) approach for the attribution of such extremes, thereby increasing the data available, and apply this approach to five recent flooding events on a regional scale. Using this method, for all five events we found a significant climate signal in the extreme regional rainfall totals immediately preceding the flooding. Results were …
Scholar articles
DF Cotterill, D Mitchell, PA Stott, P Bates - International Journal of Climatology, 2024