View article

Interest in the question of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting extreme weather has grown considerably over the past few years-and 2023 has been no exception. This increase in interest has brought a need for robust approaches that are able to quantitatively answer this question rapidly after an event occurs. However, conventional attribution frameworks using statistical or dynamical climate models have been challenged by several recent events that lay well beyond the historical record. While such events have proven difficult to attribute using conventional methodologies, many were surprisingly well forecast by high-resolution numerical weather prediction systems. These systems generally lie at the state-of-the-art in the spectrum of earth system modelling, and their deficiencies are well documented and understood. We suggest that they therefore represent an opportunity for answering attribution—and …