Authors
Mark P Taylor, David A Peel, Lucio Sarno
Publication date
2001/11
Journal
International economic review
Volume
42
Issue
4
Pages
1015-1042
Publisher
Blackwell Publishers Ltd
Description
We fit nonlinearly mean‐reverting models to real dollar exchange rates over the post‐Bretton Woods period, consistent with a theoretical literature on transactions costs in international arbitrage. The half lives of real exchange rate shocks, calculated through Monte Carlo integration, imply faster adjustment speeds than hitherto recorded. Monte Carlo simulations reconcile our results with the large empirical literature on unit roots in real exchange rates by showing that when the real exchange rate is nonlinearly mean reverting, standard univariate unit root tests have low power, while multivariate tests have much higher power to reject a false null hypothesis.
Total citations
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