Authors
Jens Christian Refsgaard, Jeroen P Van der Sluijs, James Brown, Peter Van der Keur
Publication date
2006/11/1
Journal
Advances in water resources
Volume
29
Issue
11
Pages
1586-1597
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Although uncertainty about structures of environmental models (conceptual uncertainty) is often acknowledged to be the main source of uncertainty in model predictions, it is rarely considered in environmental modelling. Rather, formal uncertainty analyses have traditionally focused on model parameters and input data as the principal source of uncertainty in model predictions. The traditional approach to model uncertainty analysis, which considers only a single conceptual model, may fail to adequately sample the relevant space of plausible conceptual models. As such, it is prone to modelling bias and underestimation of predictive uncertainty. In this paper we review a range of strategies for assessing structural uncertainties in models. The existing strategies fall into two categories depending on whether field data are available for the predicted variable of interest. To date, most research has focussed on situations …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
JC Refsgaard, JP Van der Sluijs, J Brown… - Advances in water resources, 2006
JC Refsgaard, JP van der Sluijs, J Brown… - WaterResour., 29, 1586-1597, doi: 10.1016/j …, 2005