Authors
Stephen Davis, P Trapman, Herwig Leirs, Michael Begon, JAP Heesterbeek
Publication date
2008/7/31
Journal
Nature
Volume
454
Issue
7204
Pages
634-637
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Description
Percolation theory is most commonly associated with the slow flow of liquid through a porous medium, with applications to the physical sciences. Epidemiological applications have been anticipated for disease systems where the host is a plant or volume of soil,, and hence is fixed in space. However, no natural examples have been reported. The central question of interest in percolation theory, the possibility of an infinite connected cluster, corresponds in infectious disease to a positive probability of an epidemic. Archived records of plague (infection with Yersinia pestis) in populations of great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Kazakhstan have been used to show that epizootics only occur when more than about 0.33 of the burrow systems built by the host are occupied by family groups. The underlying mechanism for this abundance threshold is unknown. Here we present evidence that it is a percolation threshold …
Total citations
200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320241139242022141819911121516776