Authors
Pierre Perron
Publication date
1997/10/1
Journal
Journal of econometrics
Volume
80
Issue
2
Pages
355-385
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
This study first reexamines the findings of Perron (1989) regarding the claim that most macroeconomic time series are best construed as stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend function if allowance is made for the possibility of a shift in the intercept of the trend function in 1929 (a crash) and a shift in slope in 1973 (a slowdown in growth). Unlike that previous study, the date of possible change is not fixed a priori but is considered as unknown. We consider various methods to select the break points and the asymptotic and finite sample distributions of the corresponding statistics. A detailed discussion about the choice of the truncation lag parameter in the autoregression and of its effect on the critical values is also included. Most of the rejections reported in Perron (1989) are confirmed using this approach. Secondly, this paper investigates an international data set of post-war quarterly real GNP (or GDP …
Total citations
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