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In the early stage of coalbed methane (CBM) development, a reasonable depressurization rate is beneficial for CBM wells to achieve high and stable production. The daily water production or the bottom-hole pressure (BHP) in current prediction models of reservoir pressure needs to be kept constant, while the production system is constantly changing. To explore the refined drainage strategy, a dynamic prediction model of reservoir pressure considering stress sensitivity and variable production was established. Based on actual production data, the model could achieve real-time monitoring of reservoir pressure, absolute permeability, and pressure propagation distance. Furtherly, the pressure dynamic variation law in the single-phase water flow stage of CBM reservoir development in the Baode area was quantitatively characterized and the dewatering rate was optimized. The study found that in the early stage of …