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There is a growing body of data to show that participation in school‐based counselling is associated with significant reductions in psychological distress. However, this cannot be taken as evidence that school‐based counselling is effective, as improvements may have happened without the intervention.

The purpose of this study was to develop a method of estimating the amount of ‘natural’ change that might be expected in young people who would attend school‐based counselling, such that the effects of the intervention over and above this amount could be identified.

Young Person's CORE (YP‐CORE) scores from 74 participants allocated to waiting list control conditions in four pilot trials of school‐based counselling in the UK were re‐analysed using regression models, and a formula was found for estimating the outcomes for young people were they not to receive counselling. This …