Authors
Jagpreet Chhatwal, Suren Jayasuriya, Elamin H Elbasha
Publication date
2016/11
Journal
Medical Decision Making
Volume
36
Issue
8
Pages
952-964
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Description
The choice of a cycle length in state-transition models should be determined by the frequency of clinical events and interventions. Sometimes there is need to decrease the cycle length of an existing state-transition model to reduce error in outcomes resulting from discretization of the underlying continuous-time phenomena or to increase the cycle length to gain computational efficiency. Cycle length conversion is also frequently required if a new state-transition model is built using observational data that have a different measurement interval than the model’s cycle length. We show that a commonly used method of converting transition probabilities to different cycle lengths is incorrect and can provide imprecise estimates of model outcomes. We present an accurate approach that is based on finding the root of a transition probability matrix using eigendecomposition. We present underlying mathematical challenges of …
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